Competitive response

Readings:

O Review the attached Strategic Thinking Using Game Theory powerpoint document and view the Youtube Game Theory video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clZR8ivcSEA&feature=emb_title

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O Article CNBC: Oil plunges 24% for worst day since 1991 after OPEC deal failure sparks price war https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

O Article The Hightower Report Daily Energy Complex Commentary – see attached [Only Read Crude Oil Complex paragraph]

O Article WSJ Barrel Cost Breakdown http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

O Article Economic Times Producer’s fiscal break-even a key factor in setting oil prices economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/producers-fiscal-break-even-a-key-factor-in-setting-oil-prices/articleshow/67225321.cms Note: Need to copy paste onto your internet browser since hyperlink was not successful. Also, assume that Saudi & Russia fiscal Break-evens are 10% to 20% lower by 2020.

O Article Wikipedia List of countries by foreign-exchange reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

O Article U.S. Dept of Energy Energy / Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook February 2020 Tables 3a, 3b & 3c (~pages 30-32) https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

Assignment Questions:

Note: You are the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia or Russia (pick one as the protagonist)

Who are the Key Stakeholders?
What is your Competitive Response analysis & key negotiation goals during Spring 2020?
What is your likelihood of success (Good, Low or High)? Why?
Based on your response, what do you expect would be the Competitive Response of your competitor?
What are the costs of a Price War for each party? How low can crude prices drop to and for how long?
Zoom out, what is the expected impact on U.S. Shale oil producers?
Prepare a Nash Equilibrium Chart. Where is your “Nash Equilibrium”? Why?
Heads Up: High likelihood we will Role Play

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